Detailed Information on the
Census Bureau: Intercensal Demographic Estimates Assessment

Continue to set ambitious annual performance goals and incorporate them within formal documents.

Continue to further increase the involvement of state partners and other stakeholders in production and quality review of the estimates and consider more external reviews through annual meetings.

More clearly incorporate programmatic changes into strategic planning documents, including improving the estimates of international migration and use of the American Community Survey.

Measure: Improve the accuracy, timeliness, and relevance of the intercensal population estimates.

Explanation:FY 2010 Target: (1) Target includes reducing the error of closure from 2.4 percent to 1.3 percent and tightening the release schedule from the current average of 15 months to 12 months.

Measure: Number of releases of population estimates.

Explanation:FY 2011 Target: Release a preliminary set of national and state intercensal estimates incorporating the 2010 decennial data. FY 2012 Target: 10 major releases, within 15 months of estimate date, incorporating 2010 results.

Measure: Meet the needs of survey sponsors

Explanation:Annual Targets to FY 2008: (1) Monthly meeting with CPS to discuss population and housing controls (2) Weekly meetings with ACS to discuss population controls (3) Contact survey customers from previous year to assess need for population controls and/or modifications. Annual Targets FY 2008 and FY 2009: (1) Regular meetings with CPS and ACS to discuss population and housing controls (2) Contact survey customers from previous year to assess need for population controls and/or modifications. FY 2010 Target: (1) Regular meetings with CPS and ACS to discuss population and housing controls. (2) Prepare a plan for how 2010 results will be incorporated into the population and housing controls in 2011. (3) Contact survey customers from previous year to assess need for population controls and/or modifications. Annual Targets FY 2011 and FY 2012: (1) Regular meetings with CPS and ACS to discuss population and housing controls that incorporate the results of the 2010 decennial. (2) Contact survey customers from previous year to assess need for population controls and/or modifications

Measure: Improve the estimates of international migration through yearly programmatic milestones.

Explanation:FY 2003 Target: Field ethnographic interviews of foreign-born population FY 2004 Target: Update the estimates of one category of foreign-born population FY 2005 Target: Develop characteristics of foreign-born population for 2000-2004 FY 2006 Target: Produce preliminary estimates of foreign-born population by migration status FY 2007 Target: Develop annual flows of net international migration at the national level for input to intercensal estimates FY 2008 Target: Develop sub-national estimates of net international migration input to intercensal estimates. FY 2009 Target: Develop detailed demographic characteristics for the net international migration estimates for input into intercensal population estimates. FY 2010 Target: Develop detailed estimates of international migration for use in the demographic analysis of the 2010 census. FY 2011 Target: Evaluate the intercensal estimates of international migration given the new bench mark of the 2010 census. FY 2012 Target: Evaluate the use of the 5 year multi-year ACS data for use in the estimates of net international migration.

Measure: Dollar Unit Cost for the Annual National Intercensal Population Estimates (new measure, added February 2008)

Explanation:

Measure: Dollar Unit Cost for the Monthly National Intercensal Population Estimates (new measure, added February 2008)

Explanation:

Measure: Dollar Unit Cost for the Annual State Intercensal Population Estimates (new measure, added February 2008)

Explanation:

Measure: Dollar Unit Cost for the Monthly State Intercensal Population Estimates (new measure, added February 2008)

Explanation:

Is the program purpose clear?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program produces annual estimates of the population and its demographic characteristics for the nation, States, and counties, and local units of government with a population of 50,000 or more. The data are used as denominators in federal time series and as population controls for the major household surveys, and as such, affect the accuracy of the country's key measures of unemployment, inflation, income, poverty, and health.

Evidence: FY 2004 Budget Request

Does the program address a specific and existing problem, interest, or need?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program assists elected officials and government program managers in allocating hundreds of billions of dollars each year by giving them updated estimates of the United States' population for the country, states, counties, cities, and townships.

Evidence: Title 13, Section 181 of the U.S. Code requires the Census Bureau to produce data annually or biennially, based on geographic unit size. Formula grant programs such as Medicaid Assistance Program, Social service Block Grant Program, and Community Development Block Grant Program rely on these annual population estimates to calculate grant amounts.

Is the program designed so that it is not redundant or duplicative of any Federal, state, local or private effort?

Explanation: The intercensal program is unique in that it uses confidential administrative data to provide consistent intercensal demographic estimates across all entities of government.

Evidence: Title 13 and 26 of the U.S. Code

Is the program design free of major flaws that would limit the program's effectiveness or efficiency?

Explanation: The intercensal estimates program has not captured net international migration data well during the 1990s. The program is currently working to improve these estimates.

Evidence: U.S. Census Bureau's FY2003 Congressional Budget Submission GAO-03-178 "2000 Census Redistributes Federal Funding Among States"

Is the program effectively targeted, so program resources reach intended beneficiaries and/or otherwise address the program's purpose directly?

Explanation: These estimates assist elected officials and government program managers in allocating hundreds of billions of dollars each year by giving them updated estimates of the United States' population for the country, states, counties, and local governmental units.

Evidence: FY 2004 Budget Request, Title 13, Section 181 of the U.S. Code requires the Census Bureau to produce data annually or biennially, based on geographic unit size.

Does the program have a limited number of specific long-term performance measures that focus on outcomes and meaningfully reflect the purpose of the program?

Explanation: The intercensal estimates program has one performance goal, to produce accurate, timely, and relevant population estimates to be used for annual funding allocations. Long term performance measures include reduction in the error of closure, meeting release dates, and other milestones.

Evidence: U.S. Census Bureau Strategic Plan FY2004-2008

Does the program have ambitious targets and timeframes for its long-term measures?

Explanation: The long term targets of the intercensal estimates program are to reduce the error of closure from 2.4 percent to 1.3 percent by 2010, tighten the release schedule from the current average of 15 months to 12 months, and reduce the mean absolute percent error of the county population estimates from 3.4 percent to 3.3 percent by 2010. The program also has long term milestones including the integration of the expanded international migration component into population estimates.

Evidence: U.S. Census Bureau Strategic Plan FY2004-2009

Does the program have a limited number of specific annual performance measures that demonstrate progress toward achieving the program's long-term measures?

Explanation: The intercensal estimates program has annual milestones for scheduled releases, meetings with survey sponsors to assess population controls and need for modifications, and enhancements to the estimates of international migration.

Evidence: U.S. Census Bureau's FY2003 Congressional Budget Submission U.S. Census Bureau Strategic Plan FY2004-2009

Does the program have baselines and ambitious targets and timeframes for its annual measures?

Explanation: In general, the annual milestones demonstrate improvement in the release schedules and improved estimates of internation migration.

Evidence: FY 2003 Congressional Budget Reguest

Do all partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, etc.) commit to and work toward the annual and/or long-term goals of the program?

Explanation: The program shares short and long term goals with both internal and external customers and stakeholders. However the program should work to further increase the involvement of state partners and other stakeholders in the production and quality review of the estimates and projections.

Evidence: The program presents goals to customers at the annual meetings of the Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates and the State Data Centers.

Are independent and quality evaluations of sufficient scope and quality conducted on a regular basis or as needed to support program improvements and evaluate effectiveness and relevance to the problem, interest, or need?

Explanation: The intercensal estimates are reviewed by members of the Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) and internal reviews are completed on estimates used for fund allocation. The Census Bureau also evaluates the program as part of Census 2000 evaluation program. These evaluations showed that 2000 estimates were within 3% of actual decennial census population totals. The program should consider more external reviews of program performance.

Evidence: Comparisons between the program and Census 2000 were included in the Associated DAPE Analysis, ESCAP I & II.

Are Budget requests explicitly tied to accomplishment of the annual and long-term performance goals, and are the resource needs presented in a complete and transparent manner in the program's budget?

Explanation: The Census Bureau budget requests tie resource requests to the accomplishment of performance goals for new initiatives and incorporate unit costs for base and new activities. However, improvements can be made in tying base activities to annual and long term performance goals.

Evidence: FY 2004 Budget Request

Has the program taken meaningful steps to correct its strategic planning deficiencies?

Explanation: The intercensal estimates program should more clearly incorporate programmatic changes, including improving the estimates of international migration and use of the American Community Survey data, into strategic planning documents.

Evidence: Census Bureau's Strategic Plan for 2004 - 2008

Does the agency regularly collect timely and credible performance information, including information from key program partners, and use it to manage the program and improve performance?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program receives regular feedback from internal and external partners and uses this feedback to adjust its internal policies and timelines to more effectively manage the program and update the Demorgaphic Programs Directorate's Strategic Plan.

Evidence: Meetings with survey sponsors (e.g. CPS, BLS, and NCHS)

Are Federal managers and program partners (grantees, subgrantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, etc.) held accountable for cost, schedule and performance results?

Explanation: Annual performance plans for managers include goals and meaures that are linked to the strategic goals of the intercensal estimates program. The program has included specific production goals within manager performance plans and is working to include the program enhancement milestones. All contracts are carefully monitored and contractors are held accountable for progress.

Evidence: Performance plans are part of each employee's annual review from entry level to senior staff.

Are all funds (Federal and partners') obligated in a timely manner and spent for the intended purpose?

Explanation: The Census Bureau seeks to obligate needed funds in a timely and appropriate manner

Evidence: At the end of FY 2002, 99.9% of funds for the intercensal demographic estimates program were obligated.

Does the program have procedures (e.g., competitive sourcing/cost comparisons, IT improvements, approporaite incentives) to measure and achieve efficiencies and cost effectiveness in program execution?

Explanation: The Intercensal estimates program has developed and introduced new products to meet the growing need of policy and program managers for this information with essentially stable resource levels. The program expanded the range of annual estimates for the nation, States, and counties to include more demographic characteristics.

Evidence: Annual budget request and annual performance plans

Does the program collaborate and coordinate effectively with related programs?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program collaborates with internal and external partners to allow for effective coordination of programs.

Evidence: The program has agreements with both internal (Current Population Survey and American Community Survey branches) and external customers (BLS, NCHS, and BEA).

Does the program use strong financial management practices?

Explanation: The Census Bureau's financial management practices have resulted in a clean opinion on its financial audit since FY 1999.

Evidence: DOC Financial Audits Reports

Has the program taken meaningful steps to address its management deficiencies?

Explanation: In general, the intercensal estimates program has adequate program management. The Census Bureau has developed areas of competency that managers must meet in their jobs and several programs have been developed to meet training needs in competency areas.

Evidence: Project Management Master Certificate Program

Has the program demonstrated adequate progress in achieving its long-term outcome performance goals?

Explanation: The error of closure of the intercensal demographic estimates was off by 2.4% as compared to the 2000 Census population counts. The Intercensal Estimates program is working to improve the estimates of international migration that should improve the error of closure in 2010.

Evidence: Population Division Working Papers

Does the program (including program partners) achieve its annual performance goals?

Explanation: In general, the intercensal estimates program has met its annual performance goals.

Evidence: Census Bureau data releases, internal documentation

Does the program demonstrate improved efficiencies or cost effectiveness in achieving program performance goals each year?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program has developed and released the yearly population estimates and increased the number of products with relatively flat funding throughout the 1990s.

Evidence: FY 1990-2004 budget requests

Does the performance of this program compare favorably to other programs, including government, private, etc., that have similar purpose and goals?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program has a more diverse product package than comparable statistical programs and agencies. The program's products provide base level data for private industry.

Evidence: Comparison of product lines across various statistical programs and agencies.

Do independent and quality evaluations of this program indicate that the program is effective and achieving results?

Explanation: The intercensal demographic estimates program has been evaluated through a set of working papers that provide evaluations of the estimates for 1990 and for 2000. These evaluations determined that the 2000 estimates were off by less than 3%.

Evidence: Population Division Working Papers